Cancer high-risk subjects identified by serum pepsinogen tests: outcomes after 10-year follow-up in asymptomatic middle-aged males.

BACKGROUND Gastric cancer screening using the pepsinogen filter test is receiving wide recognition in Japan owing to convenience, freedom from discomfort or risk, efficiency, and economy. Because the long-term outcomes of cancer development in extensive atrophic gastritis detected by pepsinogen test are unclear, test-positive and test-negative subjects were investigated in a longitudinal cohort study. METHODS Subjects comprised 5,209 middle-aged men with measured serum pepsinogen levels who were followed for 10 years. Cancer development based on "atrophy-positive" and "atrophy-negative" criteria used for cancer screening was investigated. RESULTS During the study, 63 cases of cancer developed in the cohort, representing an incidence rate of 125 per 100,000 person-years. Pepsinogen test screening using the most widely used atrophy-positive criterion (pepsinogen I, < or =70 ng/mL; pepsinogen I/II ratio, < or =3.0) displayed 58.7% sensitivity, 73.4% specificity, and 2.6% positive predictive value. Cancer incidence rate was 276 per 100,000 person-years for the atrophy-positive group and 70 per 100,000 person-years for the atrophy-negative group. Incidence rate was higher in groups fulfilling stricter positive criteria detecting more extensive atrophy, reaching 424 per 100,000 person-years. In addition, 9.2% of atrophy-negative subjects with pepsinogen I of >70 ng/mL and pepsinogen I/II ratio of < or =3.0 (reflecting putative inflammation-based high pepsinogen II level) are at high risk for cancer, particularly diffuse-type cancer, with a cancer incidence rate comparable with atrophy-positive subjects (216 per 100,000 person-years). CONCLUSION Atrophy-positive subjects by pepsinogen filter test, particularly those fulfilling stricter criteria, and atrophy-negative subjects with low pepsinogen I/II ratio reflecting putative extensive active inflammation constitute populations at high risk for gastric cancer, requiring thorough endoscopic examination.